Barack Obama
predicted that black voter turnout would swell by at least
30% if he wins the presidential nomination, giving Democrats
victory in Southern states that have been voting
Republican for decades.
''I'm probably
the only candidate who, having won the nomination, can
actually redraw the political map,'' Obama told a Democratic
voter skeptical that he could defeat a Republican
candidate.
''I guarantee you
African-American turnout, if I'm the nominee, goes up
30% around the country, minimum,'' Obama said. ''Young
people's percentage of the vote goes up 25-30%. So
we're in a position to put states in play that haven't
been in play since LBJ.''
Lyndon Baines
Johnson ran for president in 1964 and won in a landslide.
But since then the South has turned into a Republican
stronghold.
Obama's comment
came in response to former New Hampshire state
representative Carol Moore, who told him the candidate to
get her vote will be the one she feels has the best
chance of winning in the general election because
she's so scared another Republican will replace
President Bush. She asked Obama what made him think he could
win. Another voter later told Obama that because of
his lack of experience, ''by any stretch of the
imagination, it would be a leap of faith to vote for
you.''
Obama often
rejects the politics of ''who's up, who's down,'' but he
showed he was following the polls. He said he fares best
among independent voters, that he has lower negative
ratings than his Democratic rivals and is leading
Republicans Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and Fred
Thompson in head-to-head matchups.
''I would include
McCain, but John's having trouble right now, so that's
not that big of a feat,'' Obama said of the Republican
senator from Arizona, drawing laughter at the packed
house party in the state capital attended by about 70
people.
Obama noted that
in Mississippi, blacks make up more than a third of the
state's population, but make up a smaller share of the
electorate.
''If we just got
African-Americans in Mississippi to vote their
percentage of the population, Mississippi is suddenly a
Democratic state,'' Obama said. He said Georgia would
also turn Democratic and South Carolina would be in
play.
Obama said his
biggest weakness in the general election would be the same
as in the primary where Hillary Rodham Clinton is his chief
opponent--overcoming the perception that he hasn't
been on the national stage long enough and isn't tough
enough to win.
''Let me tell
you, if I beat the Clintons, folks aren't going to ask
whether I'm tough enough,'' Obama said to laughter from the
crowd.
Obama said he has
''no doubt that there will be attempts to dirty me
up,'' but he is determined to respond quickly to attacks if
he wins the nomination.
''I'm in a very
strong position now,'' Obama said. ''I will be in a very
strong position after I win the nomination. I mean, let's
face it, if I win the nomination, it's pretty big
news.''
Obama rival John
Edwards has been arguing that he is the most electable
candidate in the South because he is from North Carolina and
Obama and Clinton have never run in the South.
''Senator Obama
is right and wrong,'' said Edwards spokesman Chris
Kofinis. ''He's right that the American people want change,
but wrong about who will bring that change. Senator
Edwards is the strongest Democratic nominee because
it's his bold transformational ideas that will
increase turnout by 30% amongst African-Americans, whites,
women and all Americans.''
Clinton spokesman
Howard Wolfson responded, ''Hillary Clinton is surging
and leading in both national primary and general election
polls because Americans know she is the candidate with
the strength and experience to make change happen. She
has a 20-point lead in the primary and is beating the
leading Republicans in red states like Ohio, Florida, and
Arkansas.'' (Nedra Pickler, AP)